Winning money with sports bets is the ultimate goal of every better and it is possible thanks to bet value and sure bet! In the paragraphs that follow, we will present you not 1 sports betting technique but 2 techniques that will allow you to make a profit for sure. As a first step, we will talk about Sure bet Then in a second time, we will explain what a value bet.
First bet technique: Sure bet
The Sure bet, English term which means « sure bet », is a sporty betting technique ensuring you win at all times, regardless of the outcome of the sporting event on which you have engaged your bet. Indeed, thanks to the differences in ratings that exist on bookmakers, it is possible to guarantee a gain. It is therefore a method which requires to have an account on several online betting sites because no bookmaker alone will take the risk of offering a sure bet at any given moment. This is quite logical since this site would inexorably lose money.
How to calculate a safe bet?
Rest assured, the calculation of a sure bet is not complicated to understand. We are in the presence of a sure bet, for any 1N2 sporting event, when:
- 1/cote a + 1/cote b + 1/c < 1 (valid for 1N2 bets)
- 1/cote a + 1/cote b < 1 (valid for type 12 bets such as tennis)
In this calculation, the rating a corresponds to the rating of a first bookmaker, the rating b at the level of a second bookmaker, etc... Let's take a concrete example to better understand:
Match PSG – Man City : at the same time you will find at 3 different bookmakers a rating to @2 for 1 (Victory of the PSG), a @4 for N (match zero) and one rating at @5 for the 2 (Man City victory).
Let us now calculate: 1/2 + 1/4 + 1/5 = 0,95
The above result is less than 1 since we reach 0.95. So we just found a safe bet. It is now necessary to place the bets.
How do I calculate the bet amounts for a surebet?
Once you have found a sure bet, you have to know how much to bet on each option (1, N and 2) to make sure you earn money.
With the previous example (Match PSG – Man City), we were in the presence of a sure bet of 5% (0.95). To ensure you get a win regardless of the result of the match, you have to bet (this can vary depending on your bankroll dedicated to your bets):
- 100/2 = 50€ to be placed on 1 (PSG win)
- 100/4 = 25€ to be placed on the N (match zero)
- 100/5 = 20€ to be placed on 2 (Man City Victory)
If we add all these amounts, you will have to bet 95€ total. Imagine all the scenarios:
- If PSG wins: 50€ set x 2 = 100€
- If there's a draw: 25€ set x 4 = 100€
- If Man City wins: 20€ set x 5 = 100€
In any case, you win 100€ or 5€ insured benefits (100 - 95 = 5). Thus, this sports betting technique allows you to earn money every time and without risk.
Second betting technique: value bet
The value bet is another sports betting technique that allows to realize winnings. It is different from the previous one. Explanation:
All the ratings that can be found on online betting sites are based on several criteria: statistics, sports and extra-sports information and other data that only bookmakers have in their possession. Ratings are nothing more than mere probability of result.
For your part, you can also assess the probability of the outcome of a match based on your own analysis, your experience of sports betting and your intuition (it always takes as little as possible). If you ever think that a particular result is more likely to pass than bookmakers think, then you are in the presence of a value bet. In other words, if you find that the probability of occurrence of a result is underestimated by a bookmaker, it is a value bet.
On the other hand, this sport betting technique is based solely on your betting opinion. It is therefore totally subjective, unlike the sure bet, and it is preferable to have a little experience before exploiting it to the maximum.
How to determine the presence of a value bet?
Knowing to recognize a bet value is not complicated, you just have to estimate the probability that a team will win in the match you want to bet on. An example to better understand:
Match Lyon – Marseille According to your own analysis, you think Lyon has a 50% chance of winning. Then you compare the Lyon coast on several bookmakers and you find it at @2.30 on the site Pinnacle (example).
Now, the following calculation must be made: coefficient multiplied by your probability, that is, 2.30 x (50/100) = 1.15. If the result of this calculation is greater than 1, then you just found a value bet. In our example, it is indeed a value bet since 1.15 > 1.
In other words, you have determined that Lyon's victory has a 50% chance of success, the bookmaker's rating should have been @2.00 (100/50). Thus, you feel that the bookmaker in question underestimated Lyon's probability of victory and take advantage of this opportunity to increase your hope of winning.
Value bet is a method that uses your sense of analysis and experience. It takes a lot of time but very often it's worth it because in the long run you will become a winning bet.
By betting on a bet value, you do not increase your chances of winning but you greatly increase your earnings expectations. Reminder: Don't forget to analyze a game carefully and be careful in your estimates before placing your bets.
Conclusion
In conclusion, these two sports betting techniques take a long time before they are fully mastered. However, with a little experience, they will certainly allow you to earn money in the long term.
However, if you have any questions about value bets and sure bets, please do not hesitate to send us any comments.
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